The Dodgers traded three prospects for Tarik Skubal because they believed he could help them win another World Series.
Their three-peat attempt ended earlier than expected, but Skubal did enough during his short time in Los Angeles to make retaining him arguably the organization’s biggest decision of the offseason.
The encouraging news is that the interest may be mutual.
Former general manager Jim Bowden said during an appearance with Bill Reiter and Doug McKain on 97.1 The Fan that his understanding—from people who have spoken with Skubal—is that the left-hander “would love to continue being a Los Angeles Dodger.”
Bowden made an important distinction: Skubal did not personally tell him that.
This is not a commitment, an agreement or even a guarantee that Los Angeles is Skubal’s preferred destination. It is secondhand information suggesting he enjoyed his time with the Dodgers and appreciated the organization’s efforts to help him improve.
That is meaningful.
It is not the only factor that will decide where he pitches next.
Skubal’s Market Could Become Historic
ESPN’s Jeff Passan identified the Dodgers and Mets as the two most obvious suitors for Skubal, while also reporting that the Cubs “badly want” him.
Chicago’s willingness to remain involved at the expected price is less certain. Skubal’s contract is widely expected to exceed $300 million and could climb beyond $400 million if enough motivated teams enter the bidding.
Bowden has presented an even broader estimate, projecting a deal somewhere between $350 million and $500 million, depending on its length and structure.
The current record for the largest guarantee awarded to a pitcher belongs to Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who signed a 12-year, $325 million contract with the Dodgers. Executives and agents surveyed by MLB expect Skubal to have a chance to surpass both that total and the existing average-annual-value record for a pitcher. si.com
Skubal’s case is straightforward.
He is a two-time Cy Young Award winner who completed the 2026 season with a 12-7 record, 2.72 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 186 strikeouts across 158⅔ innings between Detroit and Los Angeles.
After joining the Dodgers, Skubal went 5-2 with a 2.61 ERA, 70 strikeouts and only 13 walks in 62 innings.
He then allowed three earned runs across 11 postseason innings, striking out 14.
Those numbers did not guarantee the Dodgers a championship, but they confirmed that Skubal could handle the move to Los Angeles and remain effective under October pressure.
Skubal Appeared To Embrace Los Angeles
Skubal declined to discuss his free agency in detail after the Dodgers were eliminated, but he publicly described the organization, his teammates and the fan base in highly positive terms.
That aligns with what Bowden has heard.
According to Bowden, Skubal appreciated the Dodgers’ pitching infrastructure, research department and ability to show him areas in which he could improve—even after winning consecutive Cy Young Awards.
The Dodgers frequently sell free agents on more than money.
They offer a chance to compete for a championship, access to one of baseball’s most advanced pitching operations and the opportunity to work alongside players such as Yamamoto, Shohei Ohtani, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow and Roki Sasaki.
Skubal already experienced that environment rather than merely hearing a recruiting presentation about it.
That familiarity could help Los Angeles.
It will not necessarily produce a discount.
Skubal is represented by Scott Boras, and this is likely to be the most valuable opportunity of his career. Even if remaining with the Dodgers is his preference, the offers from New York, Chicago and other possible bidders will help determine how realistic a reunion becomes.
The Dodgers Do Not Need Another Starter—But They Need Skubal
On paper, starting pitching is not Los Angeles’ most obvious weakness.
Yamamoto, Ohtani, Snell, Glasnow and Sasaki could form a formidable rotation. Emmet Sheehan and several younger pitchers give the organization additional depth.
But there is a difference between having enough starters and retaining one of the best pitchers in baseball.
Ohtani’s two-way workload still must be managed carefully. Snell and Glasnow have recent injury histories. Sasaki is still trying to prove he can provide a full season of consistent major-league innings.
Skubal would give the Dodgers another legitimate ace and reduce the need for everything else to go according to plan.
He also offers something that became important during this postseason: a starter capable of giving Los Angeles a chance even when the offense is struggling.
The Dodgers can build a strong rotation without him.
They may not be able to build a better one.
Los Angeles Must Decide How Much Risk It Will Accept
The argument for paying Skubal is built on performance.
The argument for restraint begins with his medical history.
Skubal underwent Tommy John surgery in college, had flexor tendon surgery in 2022 and missed approximately six weeks in 2026 after a procedure to remove loose bodies from his left elbow.
He returned and continued pitching at an elite level, but any contract approaching or exceeding $400 million would require the Dodgers to accept substantial long-term risk.
That matters more than whether Los Angeles can technically afford the contract.
The Dodgers already carry several enormous commitments and must prepare for the possibility that baseball’s financial system could look different under the next collective bargaining agreement.
The current agreement expires December 1. A lockout is widely anticipated if the league and players do not reach a new deal, but one has not started. ESPN’s industry survey found that most respondents expect Skubal to sign before the deadline, creating pressure for interested teams to move quickly. ABC7 New York
The Dodgers could attempt to reduce their long-term exposure by offering a shorter contract with an enormous annual salary, potentially including opt-outs.
That structure would keep Skubal in Los Angeles during his prime without necessarily creating another decade-long obligation.
Whether Boras and Skubal would prefer that structure over the largest total guarantee available remains unknown.
The Trade Cost Should Not Determine The Contract
Los Angeles surrendered outfielder Zyhir Hope and right-handers River Ryan and Brady Smith to acquire Skubal from Detroit.
Letting him leave after only a few months would make the trade feel more expensive.
That should not force the Dodgers into a contract they believe is irresponsible. The prospects have already been traded, regardless of what happens next.
But the cost does underline why a reunion would be valuable.
Los Angeles acquired Skubal to improve its immediate championship chances. Re-signing him would transform that deal from a short-term October gamble into the acquisition of a long-term rotation centerpiece.
Because Skubal changed teams during the season, the Dodgers cannot make him a qualifying offer. If he signs elsewhere, Los Angeles will not receive draft-pick compensation.
They would simply lose him.
How Far Should The Dodgers Go?
Our take: the Dodgers should be willing to make Skubal the highest-paid pitcher in baseball.
He is 29, has already succeeded in Los Angeles and gives the rotation a level of certainty that its impressive collection of names does not necessarily provide.
That does not mean offering him a blank check.
A contract approaching $500 million would carry serious risk for a pitcher with multiple elbow procedures, particularly if much of that value comes through a commitment lasting nine or ten years.
The strongest path may be an aggressive shorter-term offer with a record annual salary and flexibility for both sides.
The Mets can compete financially. The Cubs may be willing to leave their normal spending range. Other teams could emerge once the market fully develops.
The Dodgers possess one advantage those clubs cannot recreate: Skubal already knows what pitching in Los Angeles feels like, and the early indication is that he wants more of it.
Now the question becomes how much that familiarity is worth—and how far the Dodgers are willing to go to keep their ace.
Would you give Skubal more than $400 million to remain with the Dodgers?