Dodgers’ NLDS Opponent Race Begins With Phillies-Braves Wild Card Series
The Dodgers’ postseason will not begin until Saturday, but the race to become their first October opponent starts today.
Philadelphia and Atlanta will open their best-of-three National League Wild Card Series at Truist Park, with the winner advancing to face Los Angeles in Game 1 of the NLDS at Dodger Stadium.
Chris Sale will start for Atlanta, while Philadelphia will use Jesús Luzardo in a limited starting role. First pitch is scheduled for 11:00 a.m. PDT, with the game airing on NBC and Peacock.
While the Phillies and Braves battle for survival, the Dodgers will continue preparing in Los Angeles after securing the National League’s No. 2 seed and a first-round bye.
Chris Sale Gives Atlanta A Strong Game 1 Advantage
Atlanta will begin the series with one of baseball’s most accomplished left-handed pitchers.
Sale finished the regular season with a 2.16 ERA, the third-lowest mark in the majors. He was also effective against Philadelphia, recording a 2.08 ERA across four starts and 26 innings.
He enters the postseason with a chance to immediately place the Phillies in an elimination game.
Atlanta’s pitching situation becomes less certain behind Sale. Injuries have reduced its rotation depth, making Tyler Mahle and Grant Holmes especially important if the series extends beyond the opener.
The Braves can compensate with a bullpen that finished fourth in the majors with a 3.44 ERA. Raisel Iglesias, Dylan Lee, Didier Fuentes and a recently returned Robert Suarez give Atlanta several potential late-inning options.
Philadelphia Will Ask Luzardo To Set The Tone
Luzardo’s role will be different from a traditional postseason start.
The left-hander has not started since throwing a two-hit shutout against Atlanta on September 7. He has been working back from inflammation in his left shoulder and is not expected to provide his usual workload.
Luzardo’s only appearance since the injury was a four-pitch inning during Philadelphia’s regular-season finale.
That could lead to rookie Andrew Painter following him out of the bullpen as the Phillies attempt to piece together enough innings to reach their primary late-game relievers.
Philadelphia’s bullpen was one of the club’s biggest weaknesses during the regular season. Its relievers produced a 4.43 ERA, ranking 21st in the majors.
Closer Jhoan Durán remains a major weapon, but the path to getting him a lead has been less dependable.
Regular-Season Results Favor Philadelphia As Dodgers’ Opponent
If Dodgers fans base their preference strictly on what happened during the regular season, Philadelphia appears to be the more favorable opponent.
Los Angeles went 4-2 against the Phillies with a plus-11 run differential, winning two of three games at Dodger Stadium and two of three in Philadelphia.
The results against Atlanta were completely different.
The Dodgers finished 1-5 against the Braves and were outscored by nine runs across the six meetings. Atlanta won five consecutive games against Los Angeles after dropping the first meeting between the teams in May.
That included a three-game sweep at Truist Park in August in which the Dodgers lost each game by one run.
Regular-season results do not guarantee anything in October. Rosters change, injuries matter and a short postseason series can turn on one swing.
They do, however, give Dodgers fans a legitimate reason to view Atlanta as the more uncomfortable matchup.
Austin Brubaker Identifies Atlanta’s Major Weakness
Despite Atlanta’s regular-season success against the Dodgers, Blue Dynasty contributor Austin Brubaker identified one weakness Los Angeles could potentially exploit in an NLDS matchup.
The Braves have struggled against left-handed pitching.
Austin, a biostatistician with the Great Lakes Loons and host of the upcoming Blue Dynasty Breakdown, examined Atlanta’s offensive splits through September 26.
The Braves produced a .247/.310/.410 slash line with a 98 wRC+ and .316 expected weighted on-base average overall.
Against right-handed pitching, those numbers improved to a .251/.315/.417 slash line, 101 wRC+ and .323 xwOBA.
Against left-handers, Atlanta fell to .240/.300/.396 with a 91 wRC+ and .301 xwOBA.
That 22-point difference between Atlanta’s xwOBA against right-handed and left-handed pitching was the fourth-largest split in the majors, according to Austin’s research.
The difference became even more pronounced when he limited the study to Atlanta’s 12 most likely postseason offensive contributors.
That group recorded a .329 xwOBA against right-handers and a .303 mark against left-handers. It also had an OPS difference of nearly 50 points between the two splits.
Atlanta’s Struggles Against Left-Handers Have Become Worse
Austin’s research also showed that Atlanta’s problems against left-handed pitching were not limited to the beginning of the season.
The Braves’ likely postseason hitters batted .238/.286/.380 with a .278 xwOBA against left-handers beginning August 1.
Since September 1, that group fell to .221/.265/.329 with a .246 xwOBA against left-handed pitching.
That is a significant decline at exactly the time the Dodgers are determining how to construct their NLDS pitching staff.
Ronald Acuña Jr., Drake Baldwin and Matt Olson remain dangerous regardless of the matchup, but Atlanta does not have the same depth against left-handers throughout the lineup.
Austin specifically identified the section featuring Baldwin and Michael Harris II as an area where Los Angeles could continue deploying left-handed pitching without encountering an obvious matchup stopper near the bottom of the order.
Atlanta Matchup Could Influence Dodgers’ Bullpen Decisions
The Dodgers are expected to carry eight or nine relievers for the NLDS, depending on whether they use the final roster spot on an additional pitcher or position player.
Austin considers Tanner Scott and Alex Vesia secure left-handed options.
An Atlanta matchup could strengthen the cases for Kris Bubic, Jack Dreyer or Justin Wrobleski. Each would give Dave Roberts another left-handed arm to deploy against a lineup that has struggled badly against that side.
Austin predicts the Dodgers would carry at least three left-handed relievers if Atlanta advances.
That is his projection—not a roster decision announced by the Dodgers—but it demonstrates how the Wild Card result could affect the final NLDS roster.
Los Angeles must determine whether to select the pitchers who performed best over the entire season or the arms best equipped to exploit a particular opponent.
Atlanta’s splits may be difficult to ignore.
Philadelphia Presents A Different Type Of Challenge
Philadelphia also performed better against right-handed pitching than left-handed pitching, potentially creating favorable matchups for Tarik Skubal and Blake Snell.
The Phillies enter the postseason with more questions surrounding their bullpen and recent offensive production.
They went 10-14 in September and lost six of their final nine games. Their offense finished the month near the bottom of the majors in batting average, slugging percentage, OPS and runs per game.
Philadelphia will also play the Wild Card Series without Luis Arraez, who suffered a left ankle sprain during the final week of the season. His availability for a potential NLDS has not been established.
However, the Phillies still have dangerous postseason hitters in Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Trea Turner and J.T. Realmuto, along with a rotation capable of changing a short series.
Dodgers Would Benefit From A Three-Game Series
The ideal result for Los Angeles may be for Philadelphia and Atlanta to push each other through all three games.
A deciding Game 3 would force the winner to use additional pitchers before traveling to Los Angeles. It could also affect which starter is available when the NLDS begins Saturday.
The Dodgers will enter Game 1 rested and able to arrange their rotation without first surviving an elimination series.
Their opponent will arrive after playing at least two high-pressure games in Atlanta.
That advantage only matters if the Dodgers use the layoff effectively. Los Angeles must keep its hitters sharp and its pitchers prepared while avoiding the sluggish start that can sometimes follow an extended break.
Who Would Dodgers Fans Rather Face?
Philadelphia appears to be the better matchup based on the regular-season results and uncertainty surrounding its bullpen.
Atlanta gave the Dodgers far more trouble during their six meetings, but Austin’s analysis revealed a left-handed weakness that could play directly into the strengths of Los Angeles’ rotation and influence the composition of its bullpen.
That creates an interesting choice.
Would Dodgers fans prefer the Philadelphia team Los Angeles defeated four times during the regular season?
Or would they rather face an Atlanta lineup that won five of six meetings but may be vulnerable against the Dodgers’ collection of left-handed pitchers?
One will be eliminated before the NLDS begins.
The other will arrive at Dodger Stadium standing between Los Angeles and another trip to the National League Championship Series.
Which opponent would you rather see the Dodgers face in the NLDS: the Phillies or the Braves?