Tarik Skubal’s next contract may not be about securing the greatest number of years.
It could be about establishing a salary level no pitcher has approached.
During an appearance on ESPN’s Baseball Tonight, Buster Olney said one agent predicted Skubal could receive a six-year, $360 million contract—an average salary of $60 million per season.
Olney described the potential structure as more similar to Kyle Tucker’s Dodgers contract than Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s 12-year agreement.
“I had one agent predict to me that they are gonna kind of do … more Kyle Tucker-type structure, like six times 60,” Olney said.
That would represent a shorter commitment than many initial projections but a dramatically higher annual salary. Yahoo Sports
It remains a market prediction.
No team has reportedly offered Skubal $360 million, and there is no confirmation that Scott Boras or Skubal has formally requested that structure.
The Contract Would Shatter Pitching Records
A six-year, $360 million deal would break two major pitching records.
Yamamoto currently owns the largest total guarantee for a pitcher after signing a 12-year, $325 million contract with the Dodgers.
Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander share the record for the highest average annual value by a pitcher at approximately $43.3 million.
Skubal’s proposed $60 million salary would exceed that mark by nearly $17 million per season. mlb.com
It would also match the surface-level annual value of Tucker’s four-year, $240 million Dodgers contract, although deferrals reduce Tucker’s official present-day value for Competitive Balance Tax purposes.
Tucker received a $64 million signing bonus, $30 million in deferred salary and opt-out clauses following the second and third years of his deal. Olney’s comparison does not mean Skubal’s contract would necessarily include those same provisions. mlb.com
The similarity is the philosophy: fewer guaranteed years in exchange for an extraordinary annual salary.
Other Projections Are Already Approaching $400 Million
The $360 million estimate is aggressive, but it is not disconnected from the rest of the market.
ESPN recently surveyed 27 industry insiders about Skubal’s free agency. Their average prediction was approximately eight years and $355 million, with 59 percent of the estimates falling between $325 million and $400 million.
ESPN’s final projection was eight years and $352 million.
Twenty-one of the 27 respondents expected Skubal to sign before the current collective bargaining agreement expires on December 1. ESPN News
Jeff Passan identified the Dodgers and Mets as the most obvious suitors, with the Cubs also interested but potentially uncomfortable competing at a price that could climb beyond $400 million.
Olney has separately reported hearing estimates placing Skubal above Yamamoto’s guarantee on a six- or seven-year contract. News
The exact structure remains uncertain.
What appears increasingly likely is that Skubal will establish a new financial standard for starting pitchers.
Why Skubal Can Command That Price
Skubal is not reaching free agency because of one strong season.
He has established himself as one of baseball’s best pitchers, combining elite strikeout ability with exceptional control.
After joining the Dodgers at the trade deadline, Skubal went 5-2 with a 2.61 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 70 strikeouts against only 13 walks in 62 innings.
He then allowed three runs with 14 strikeouts over 11 innings in two postseason starts. MLB.com
Skubal also proved that he fit comfortably in Los Angeles.
ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez reported that Skubal enjoyed the Dodgers’ culture, resources and focus on winning. Gonzalez’s sense was that Skubal would welcome staying in Los Angeles if the financial offers were comparable.
That is encouraging for the Dodgers, but it should not be confused with a commitment or a willingness to accept less money.
Skubal is the clear prize of the free-agent class. His market will ultimately be determined by how aggressively the Dodgers, Mets and any other serious bidders compete.
Six Years May Be Better For Dodgers Than Eight
At first glance, paying a pitcher $60 million per season sounds excessive.
The shorter term changes the calculation.
Skubal turns 30 later this month. A six-year contract would cover his age-30 through age-35 seasons. An eight-year agreement would carry through age 37, placing more of the risk at the end of the contract.
The Dodgers would pay a much higher annual amount under the six-year structure, but they would avoid two additional seasons when age and accumulated innings could create greater concerns.
Comparing the two prominent projections:
Six years, $360 million: $60 million annually
Eight years, $352 million: $44 million annually
The six-year proposal guarantees Skubal $8 million more in total while removing two years from the Dodgers’ obligation.
From a pure aging-risk perspective, six years may be more attractive.
From a payroll-flexibility perspective, it would be far more demanding.
Skubal’s Injury History Still Matters
Every record-setting pitching contract carries substantial risk.
Skubal underwent Tommy John surgery while in college, had flexor-tendon surgery in 2022 and underwent a procedure during the 2026 season to remove a loose particle from his elbow.
He still pitched at an elite level after returning, but those procedures will be part of every team’s evaluation. ESPN News
Starting pitchers are inherently volatile because a single arm injury can remove them for a season or longer.
The Dodgers understand that problem better than most. Their recent rotations have repeatedly required more depth than anticipated, even when the Opening Day group appeared overwhelming.
A six-year deal reduces the risk tied to Skubal’s late 30s.
It does not eliminate the possibility of an injury during the contract’s earlier seasons.
Proposed Salary Cap Complicates The Decision
The Dodgers can afford a $60 million annual salary under MLB’s current system.
They would pay significant luxury-tax penalties, but no rule prevents them from exceeding the Competitive Balance Tax thresholds.
MLB’s proposed salary cap could change that.
The league has proposed a $258.2 million hard cap beginning in 2028. If approved, a $60 million salary would consume more than 23 percent of the entire cap by itself.
The players’ union remains strongly opposed, and the sides have not reached an agreement. It is also unclear how existing contracts would be handled during any transition.
The Dodgers therefore cannot know precisely how a six-year Skubal contract would fit under the economic system that will govern most of the deal.
That uncertainty may make shorter contracts with opt-outs, deferrals or other protections more attractive, but no specific structure has been reported.
Dodgers Would Not Lose Draft Picks For Signing Him
One advantage for Los Angeles is that Skubal cannot receive a qualifying offer.
Because Detroit traded him during the season, he is ineligible for one under MLB’s current rules.
The Dodgers can sign Skubal without forfeiting draft selections or international bonus-pool money. Their only acquisition cost would be the contract and its accompanying payroll consequences.
That matters after Los Angeles already surrendered significant young talent to acquire him for the 2026 stretch run.
Re-signing Skubal would allow the Dodgers to retain the player they paid to acquire without sacrificing another prospect package.
Should Dodgers Pay Six Years And $360 Million?
Our answer: yes—but the structure matters.
If the choice is six years and $360 million or eight years and approximately $352 million, the shorter agreement may be the better baseball decision.
The $60 million annual salary would be historic, and the luxury-tax cost would be enormous. But the Dodgers would be paying for Skubal’s most valuable remaining seasons instead of extending the contract deeper into his decline phase.
Skubal has already demonstrated that he can dominate in Los Angeles, perform in October and handle the expectations surrounding the Dodgers.
He would give the rotation an unmatched group alongside Yamamoto, Ohtani, Snell, Glasnow, Sasaki and Sheehan.
The proposed salary cap is the largest reason for hesitation. Committing $60 million annually without knowing the rules that will govern baseball beginning in 2028 creates a level of risk that cannot be ignored.
But the Dodgers are attempting to win championships now.
If ownership is willing to absorb the current-system cost—and Andrew Friedman can protect the organization against future economic changes—a six-year contract is easier to defend than an eight- or ten-year commitment.
The number is uncomfortable.
So is watching the best pitcher on the market join the Mets because the Dodgers stopped bidding.
Would you give Tarik Skubal six years and $360 million to remain with the Dodgers?