Dodgers Have Little Margin for Error in Race for First-Round Bye
The Los Angeles Dodgers are almost certainly headed back to the postseason.
The bigger question entering September is whether they will have to start October immediately.
Los Angeles begins the final month of the regular season tied with the Atlanta Braves at 82-55, three games behind the National League-leading Milwaukee Brewers at 85-52. Under MLB's postseason format, only the top two division winners in each league receive a bye through the Wild Card Series.
Right now, that puts the Dodgers in a precarious position.
The records may say Los Angeles and Atlanta are even.
The tiebreaker says they are not.
Atlanta already owns the head-to-head advantage over the Dodgers, while Milwaukee has also secured the season-series tiebreaker against Los Angeles. MLB's Dodgers Beat newsletter highlighted that exact problem Monday morning: if the Dodgers finish tied with either of the teams they are chasing for postseason position, Los Angeles would not control the outcome.
That gives the Dodgers a relatively simple objective for September.
Finish ahead of them.
Dodgers Would Miss the Bye if the Season Ended Today
MLB's playoff structure makes the difference between the No. 2 and No. 3 seeds enormous.
The top two division winners in each league advance directly to the Division Series.
The No. 3 division winner has to play a best-of-three Wild Card Series against the No. 6 seed, with all three potential games hosted by the higher seed.
If the current standings were frozen today, Milwaukee would occupy the National League's top seed.
Atlanta and Los Angeles would be tied by record for the next position, but the Braves' head-to-head advantage would break the tie.
That would leave the Dodgers as the third-seeded division champion — and therefore playing in the Wild Card round.
For a team with championship expectations, that is a significant difference.
A bye means several days to rest pitchers, arrange the rotation and avoid an entire elimination series.
The Wild Card route means immediately entering a best-of-three series where one poor start or one quiet offensive night can put a season in danger.
The Dodgers experienced that extra round last year. They would prefer not to do it again.
The Atlanta Sweep Is Still Hurting Los Angeles
This is where last week's sweep in Atlanta becomes even more painful.
The Braves did not simply take three games from the Dodgers.
They gained ground directly on the team they were chasing and ensured the head-to-head tiebreaker would belong to Atlanta.
Los Angeles entered the series with an opportunity to create separation in the standings.
Instead, Atlanta swept all three games, including one-run victories of 4-3, 6-5 and 1-0.
The Dodgers recovered by taking two of three in Detroit over the weekend.
Atlanta kept winning.
The result is a dead heat in the standings entering Monday.
But because MLB eliminated Game 163 tiebreakers when the postseason expanded, tied records are settled mathematically. The first tiebreaker between two clubs is their head-to-head regular-season record.
That means Los Angeles cannot make up for losing the Atlanta season series later.
The games are already gone.
If the Dodgers and Braves both finish, for example, 98-64, Atlanta would rank ahead of Los Angeles.
The Dodgers need the better record.
Milwaukee Presents the Same Problem
Catching the Brewers would be even better.
It would also require the Dodgers to erase a three-game deficit.
Milwaukee enters the week at 85-52 and has been one of baseball's strongest teams throughout the summer. Los Angeles is still close enough to make a run at the National League's No. 1 seed, particularly with nearly a month remaining.
But again, a tie would not solve the problem.
The Dodgers lost their season series against Milwaukee earlier this month.
When the Brewers took three of four at Dodger Stadium, they secured the head-to-head tiebreaker. Manager Dave Roberts acknowledged at the time that the series could have postseason consequences.
Those consequences are becoming much more real.
Los Angeles effectively needs to gain four games on Milwaukee in the standings to finish ahead rather than merely three to draw even.
That is not an impossible task with September still to play.
It is just a considerably more difficult one.
Why the Bye Could Be Especially Valuable for This Dodgers Team
Every contender wants a first-round bye.
For this particular Dodgers roster, additional rest and preparation could carry even more value.
Tyler Glasnow has only recently returned from a lengthy injured-list stint.
Blake Snell has recently returned and is pitching extremely well.
Roki Sasaki is on the injured list.
Shohei Ohtani's attempted pitching return remains uncertain.
Will Smith is expected back from his lengthy absence this week.
The Dodgers are trying to assemble the healthiest possible version of their roster at the same time they are determining exactly how their October pitching staff should work.
Skipping the Wild Card Series would buy them time.
Instead of deciding which starter must pitch an elimination game immediately after the regular season, Roberts could line up his preferred Division Series rotation.
A pitcher carrying a minor physical issue would receive extra recovery days.
The bullpen would enter October rested rather than potentially working three high-leverage games before the Division Series even starts.
That does not guarantee postseason success.
But it is an advantage worth chasing.
Dodgers' Comfortable Division Lead Doesn't Tell the Whole Story
Los Angeles remains in strong position inside the NL West.
That can create a misleading sense of security when looking only at the divisional standings.
MLB's latest Dodgers analysis notes that it would require both a major Los Angeles collapse and a significant surge from Arizona or San Diego to knock the Dodgers out of first place. The more realistic battle is now about seeding, not qualification.
That changes how September should be viewed.
The Dodgers are not simply trying to hold onto the division.
They are competing against Milwaukee and Atlanta even on nights when they are playing completely different opponents.
A Dodgers win combined with an Atlanta loss changes the bye race.
A Dodgers loss and Braves win changes it the other direction.
Milwaukee's results matter too.
The scoreboard watching has officially begun.
September Gives Dodgers a Chance to Fix It
There is still plenty of baseball remaining.
That is the reason this situation should create urgency rather than panic.
The Dodgers have 25 regular-season games left after Sunday and begin a nine-game homestand Tuesday. They will have opportunities to stack wins without facing Milwaukee or Atlanta directly.
That also means they no longer have the luxury of fixing the tiebreaker themselves.
Those head-to-head games are finished.
All Los Angeles can do now is win enough elsewhere to make the tiebreakers irrelevant.
That is where consistency becomes critical.
The Dodgers finished August 13-14, their only losing month of the season, despite ending it with a 6-1 victory over Detroit. Their offense struggled for significant stretches, and the three-game sweep in Atlanta turned a comfortable position in the bye race into a tie.
A similar month in September could be costly.
The Dodgers Need More Than a Tie
The first-round bye race can be reduced to one uncomfortable reality:
Los Angeles has already lost its safety net.
If the Dodgers finish one game ahead of Atlanta, the Braves' season-series advantage does not matter.
If they finish one game ahead of Milwaukee, the Brewers' tiebreaker does not matter.
But if Los Angeles spends September merely keeping pace and finishes even with either club, those regular-season losses suddenly become extremely important.
That is why every game carries a little more weight now.
The Dodgers do not appear to be fighting for their postseason lives.
They are fighting for the path they want once they get there.
Winning the NL West should get them into October.
Finishing among the top two National League division winners would let them avoid the dangerous Wild Card round entirely.
And with Atlanta tied with Los Angeles while Milwaukee sits only three games ahead, that goal remains completely attainable.
There is simply less room for error than the standings alone might suggest.
The Dodgers don't need help from a tiebreaker in September. They need to make sure they never need one.