Losing Tarik Skubal in free agency would create a significant opening in the Dodgers’ rotation.
Losing him to the San Diego Padres would create two problems.
MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reported Monday that San Diego has already expressed interest in the top pitcher on the free-agent market. Morosi did not report that the Padres have submitted an offer, entered advanced negotiations or emerged as a favorite.
Interest is only the beginning of the process.
But the identity of the interested team matters.
If Skubal signs with the Mets, Phillies or another team outside the division, the Dodgers would need to replace what he provided while potentially encountering him during the postseason.
If he signs with San Diego, Los Angeles would lose those innings while facing him repeatedly in the National League West.
That possibility adds another layer to what was already the Dodgers’ biggest offseason decision.
Padres Have A Legitimate Need For Skubal
San Diego’s interest is not difficult to understand.
The Padres entered the offseason needing to rebuild most of their starting rotation. Michael King opted out of his contract, and San Diego declined its option on Nick Pivetta. Walker Buehler, Casey Mize, Robbie Ray, Lucas Giolito and Griffin Canning also reached free agency.
Randy Vásquez is currently the club’s only established returning starter without a significant question attached to him.
Joe Musgrove returned from Tommy John surgery during the postseason but still needs to rebuild his workload. Yu Darvish’s future remains uncertain following elbow surgery.
Adding Skubal would immediately give San Diego the ace around whom it could reconstruct the rest of its staff. mlb.com
The Padres are also operating under a new ownership group expected to become more aggressive after several seasons of financial restraint. MLB.com reports that San Diego has been among the most active clubs in the starting-pitching market. mlb.com
That does not mean the Padres can easily afford Skubal.
They finished 2026 with a luxury-tax payroll around $269 million and already have significant long-term commitments to Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Xander Bogaerts. Skubal is expected to seek the largest contract ever awarded to a pitcher.
San Diego also needs more than one starter.
Committing more than $40 million annually to Skubal would still leave A.J. Preller needing to fill several additional rotation spots.
The Padres therefore have a legitimate reason to pursue Skubal—but also legitimate reasons to stop short of the winning offer.
Dodgers Already Know Exactly What Skubal Provides
The Dodgers do not have to project how Skubal’s stuff might translate to the National League or how he would handle pitching in Los Angeles.
They already watched it happen.
Skubal produced a 2.61 ERA across 10 regular-season starts after joining the Dodgers at the trade deadline. He finished the entire season 12–7 with a 2.72 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 186 strikeouts across 158⅔ innings.
He then allowed one run across six innings against Atlanta in the NLDS before surrendering two runs over five innings against Milwaukee in the NLCS. mlb.com
The Dodgers paid a substantial prospect price to acquire him for only a few months.
That trade does not obligate them to win his free agency. Andrew Friedman should evaluate the contract on its own merits rather than compound one expensive decision with another.
However, allowing Skubal to leave would mean receiving only a short postseason run for the prospects Los Angeles surrendered. Because he was traded during the season, the Dodgers cannot issue him a qualifying offer and would not receive draft compensation if he signs elsewhere.
Re-signing him would transform the trade from a rental into the beginning of a much longer relationship.
San Diego Would Create A Two-Way Swing
Free-agent decisions are normally evaluated by what a player adds to the team signing him.
A move within the division also requires considering what the previous team loses.
With Skubal, the swing would be considerable.
The Dodgers would lose one of baseball’s best starting pitchers from a rotation already carrying health and workload questions. The Padres would gain a two-time Cy Young Award winner capable of matching up against Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell or Tyler Glasnow during a postseason series.
Los Angeles could also find itself facing Skubal during several regular-season divisional games.
That would not automatically make San Diego the NL West favorite. The Dodgers would still possess a deeper collection of established starting pitchers and one of baseball’s most talented overall rosters.
But Skubal would address the Padres’ biggest need while directly weakening their primary division rival.
That is different from losing him to an American League team or even another National League contender the Dodgers might see only during the postseason.
Dodgers Have Depth—But No Simple Skubal Replacement
Los Angeles would not enter 2027 without starting pitching if Skubal signs elsewhere.
The Dodgers can build a rotation around Yamamoto, Snell, Glasnow, Shohei Ohtani, Roki Sasaki and Emmet Sheehan. Justin Wrobleski, Gavin Stone and Landon Knack provide additional depth.
That collection may still represent one of baseball’s most talented rotations.
It also includes significant uncertainty.
Ohtani intends to pitch in 2027, but his exact workload has not been established. Glasnow and Snell have lengthy injury histories. Sasaki is attempting to prove he can remain healthy and dependable throughout an entire Major League season. Sheehan has earned a larger opportunity but has not yet completed a full big-league workload.
Depth is valuable because it protects the Dodgers across 162 games.
Skubal provides something different: a reliable top-of-the-rotation arm whom Los Angeles can confidently hand the ball in October.
The Dodgers could replace his innings internally.
Replacing his impact would be considerably more difficult.
Padres Interest Should Increase Urgency—Not Create A Blank Check
San Diego’s involvement should matter to the Dodgers.
It should not dictate their final offer.
Skubal is entering his age-29 season and has already undergone Tommy John surgery, flexor tendon surgery and an additional elbow procedure during 2026. His recent performance has been exceptional, but any contract extending eight, nine or more years would carry substantial pitching risk.
His market could surpass Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s record $325 million guarantee and the existing $43.33 million average-annual-value record for a pitcher.
One agent has predicted a shorter six-year contract worth $60 million annually. Other projections have placed Skubal above $400 million in total guarantees.
As we previously examined in our report on Skubal’s possible six-year, $360 million contract, a shorter agreement with an enormous annual salary could appeal to the Dodgers because it limits their long-term exposure.
Skubal and agent Scott Boras may prefer a longer contract that establishes a new total-value record.
The Padres’ interest could help Boras create leverage, but expressing interest does not mean San Diego is prepared to meet that price.
The Dodgers should determine how many years and how much guaranteed money they are comfortable offering based on Skubal’s ability, health history and fit—not because they are afraid of a rival.
The Dodgers Cannot Control His Destination
There is another uncomfortable reality.
Even if the Dodgers increase their offer, Skubal controls the decision.
Los Angeles can present the strongest baseball situation. The organization can emphasize its pitching infrastructure, championship expectations and Skubal’s positive experience following the deadline trade.
But the Mets, Padres, Giants, Phillies and Blue Jays can make their own cases. MLB.com’s latest market roundup identifies all five among the clubs connected to Skubal, with the Mets currently receiving significant attention. mlb.com
The Dodgers cannot retain him simply by wanting him more.
They must decide whether they are willing to present an offer strong enough that Skubal chooses not to leave.
Our Take
The possibility of Skubal joining San Diego should make the Dodgers slightly more aggressive.
It should not make them reckless.
There is real additional value in preventing an elite pitcher from strengthening the opponent Los Angeles will face most often. Keeping Skubal would protect the Dodgers’ rotation, preserve the value of their deadline investment and prevent the Padres from filling their biggest weakness with the best available solution.
But rivalry cannot justify an irresponsible contract.
The Dodgers should establish their maximum offer, present Skubal with a compelling reason to remain in Los Angeles and be prepared with alternatives if another team exceeds their valuation.
If San Diego signs him, the consequences would be impossible to ignore.
The Dodgers would not merely watch Skubal leave. They could spend the next several seasons trying to beat the pitcher they acquired to help lead their own rotation.
Would the possibility of Skubal joining the Padres make you more willing to give him a record contract?