The Dodgers already possess enough talent to enter 2027 as a championship contender.
That does not mean the current roster is complete.
Blue Dynasty contributor Austin Brubaker recently compiled the Dodgers’ early Steamer projections, including offensive and pitching splits for players currently on the 40-man roster. His findings reveal a team that remains extremely dangerous but could benefit from more balance against left-handed hitters and another bullpen weapon capable of neutralizing them.
The projections also offer another reason to take Emmet Sheehan seriously as a potential member of the 2027 rotation.
Before examining the numbers, an important distinction is necessary: Steamer projections are forecasts, not guarantees. The system considers previous performance, aging patterns and underlying data to estimate future production. The numbers will also change as the Dodgers make roster moves and playing-time expectations become clearer. www.mlb.com
Still, they provide an interesting early look at where the Dodgers appear strong—and where Andrew Friedman may need to make adjustments.
Dodgers Projected To Remain Better Against Right-Handed Pitching
According to Austin’s calculations, the current Dodgers roster projects for a 115 team wRC+, including a noticeable platoon split:
117 wRC+ against right-handed pitching
110 wRC+ against left-handed pitching
A 110 wRC+ against lefties would not make this a bad lineup. Because 100 represents league-average offensive production, the Dodgers would still project to be approximately 10 percent better than average in those matchups.
The concern is relative.
Los Angeles projects to be considerably more dangerous against right-handed pitching, continuing a roster imbalance that could become important during a postseason series.
Several Dodgers project favorably against lefties:
Mookie Betts: 132 wRC+
Will Smith: 123 wRC+
Andy Pages: 123 wRC+
Shohei Ohtani: 124 wRC+
Teoscar Hernández: 120 wRC+
Kyle Tucker: 111 wRC+
Freddie Freeman and Max Muncy remain slightly above average in the projection, checking in at 104 and 101, respectively.
The bigger questions appear lower on the depth chart.
Alex Freeland projects for an 85 wRC+ against left-handed pitching, Dalton Rushing sits at 83 and Hyeseong Kim falls to 56. Josue De Paula projects for a 116 wRC+ against righties but 93 against lefties.
De Paula’s split should not be treated as proof that he requires a strict platoon role. He has only 38 Major League plate appearances, and projections involving young players naturally contain more uncertainty.
It does, however, show why the Dodgers must be careful about removing too many established right-handed hitters from the roster while creating opportunities for their younger players.
Teoscar Hernández Still Serves A Specific Purpose
Teoscar has been prominently mentioned in offseason roster discussions because the Dodgers need to become younger and find regular playing time for De Paula.
The projections help illustrate the difficult part of that decision.
Steamer projects Teoscar for a modest 105 overall wRC+, but that rises to 120 against left-handed pitching. Austin found that removing him from the current roster barely changes the overall team split, moving it from 117/110 to 118/110, largely because Steamer currently gives Teoscar only 78 projected plate appearances against lefties.
That does not make Teoscar expendable.
It means early playing-time estimates can influence team projections just as much as projected ability. If the Dodgers trade Teoscar, they would still need to consider who replaces his production against left-handed pitching.
Pages, Betts and Smith give Los Angeles a strong foundation in those matchups. Another right-handed hitter capable of playing regularly—or providing meaningful production from the bench—could nevertheless become an offseason priority.
The Dodgers are already exploring how De Paula might fit into an outfield that also includes Pages, Tucker and Teoscar. De Paula’s bat appears ready for a larger opportunity, but his defense and the construction of the roster around him remain unresolved. www.mlb.com
Emmet Sheehan Projects Alongside Dodgers’ Best Starters
One of the most encouraging findings in Austin’s pitching analysis involves Sheehan.
Steamer projects Sheehan for an 18.3 percent K-BB rate, placing him alongside some of the biggest names in the Dodgers’ rotation:
Shohei Ohtani: 20.8 percent
Tyler Glasnow: 19.1 percent
Emmet Sheehan: 18.3 percent
Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 18.3 percent
Blake Snell: 18.2 percent
K-BB percentage subtracts a pitcher’s walk rate from his strikeout rate. It provides a useful measure of how well someone misses bats while limiting free passes, although it does not account for every part of run prevention. library.fangraphs.com
Matching Yamamoto and narrowly exceeding Snell in one projection does not make Sheehan an ace.
It does reinforce the argument that he deserves a legitimate opportunity.
The Dodgers already have Yamamoto, Snell, Glasnow and Roki Sasaki as leading rotation candidates. Ohtani is expected to pitch again, although his workload and Opening Day availability have not been finalized. Sheehan, Justin Wrobleski and Gavin Stone could compete for additional starts or remain stretched out as depth. www.mlb.com
Sheehan’s projected ability to combine strikeouts with control suggests he should be more than an emergency option.
The Dodgers may ultimately need all of their rotation depth because health and workload management remain significant questions. But if Sheehan performs during Spring Training, the organization should be willing to find innings for him.
Bullpen Projections Reveal A Potential Need Against Lefties
Austin’s pitching analysis identified another potential roster concern.
The current staff projects for a 17.6 percent K-BB rate against right-handed hitters compared with 16.1 percent against lefties. The gap becomes slightly wider when isolating the bullpen:
16.8 percent against right-handed hitters
15.3 percent against left-handed hitters
Tanner Scott stands out dramatically with a projected 28.7 percent K-BB rate against lefties. Jack Dreyer follows at 20 percent, giving the Dodgers two strong projected options for those matchups.
After them, the depth becomes less convincing.
That matters because Alex Vesia and Kris Bubic are free agents. Both could re-sign, but their departures would remove two experienced left-handed options from the organization.
The Dodgers do not necessarily need another traditional left-handed specialist. Modern bullpen construction is more complicated than simply matching a left-handed pitcher against a left-handed hitter.
What they need is another reliever—left-handed or right-handed—who can miss bats, avoid walks and remain effective against dangerous left-handed hitters.
Scott and Dreyer provide a strong beginning. The projections suggest the Dodgers could use more protection behind them.
Projections Show A Strong Team That Still Needs Refinement
The Dodgers do not need to rebuild their roster.
They need to balance it.
Austin’s analysis identifies three areas worth following throughout the offseason:
Does Los Angeles add or retain another reliable hitter against left-handed pitching?
Will Sheehan receive a genuine opportunity to claim rotation innings?
Can the Dodgers add another bullpen weapon capable of handling left-handed hitters?
None of those questions can be answered by projections alone.
Steamer cannot predict injuries, mechanical changes, player development or the moves Friedman will make before Opening Day. It also cannot fully account for how De Paula, Sheehan and the organization’s other young players might change during the offseason.
What the projections can do is help identify pressure points.
The early numbers show that the Dodgers remain one of baseball’s most talented teams. They also suggest that becoming younger cannot be the organization’s only objective.
The next version of the roster must be younger, deeper and constructed to handle the matchups that repeatedly become magnified in October.
Which issue should the Dodgers prioritize: another hitter against left-handed pitching, more bullpen depth or a larger role for Emmet Sheehan?